Airbus enters today’s nine-month results with about 323 aircraft still to deliver in the final quarter if it is to reach its annual target of around 870. The manufacturer handed over 547 commercial aircraft through September, leaving more than a third of the year’s intended deliveries for October, November and December.
The pressure is on getting aircraft out of the factory and into airline service. Airbus has faced shortages of engines, seats, lavatories and other equipment, holding back production and handovers. RBC Capital Markets analysts nevertheless regard the annual delivery goal as achievable, noting the company’s tendency to deliver more aircraft towards year-end.
A delivery date is where the manufacturer’s schedule meets the airline’s. Carriers plan replacement retirements, crew training and new services around incoming aircraft. A late handover can leave an airline needing its older aircraft for longer or with less capacity than it expected. Bringing forward a delivery can require crews, financing and induction work to be ready sooner.
The remaining task averages roughly 108 handovers a month across the final quarter. That is a measure of the workload. The company’s year-end target remains an ambition rather than aircraft already accepted by customers.
Investors will receive the financial update later today. Airbus lists its analyst call for 19:30 CET—midnight IST at the start of October 29. Its results, presentation and financial notes are scheduled for publication on October 28; they had not been announced at the time of this morning’s preview.
Analysts expect third-quarter revenue of €17.91 billion, slightly above €17.83 billion a year earlier, according to a company-provided consensus compiled from 22 analysts. Adjusted earnings before interest and tax are forecast at €1.78 billion, down from €1.94 billion. These are estimates, not reported results.
The consensus also forecasts net profit of €1.30 billion, compared with €1.12 billion a year earlier. Analysts are not expecting Airbus to change its annual financial targets, adjusted EBIT of around €7.5 billion and free cash flow before customer financing of around €4.5 billion.
The delivery programme is the immediate test of execution. Airbus must coordinate parts, assembly, completion and customer acceptance while preserving quality and keeping suppliers aligned with the production plan. The earnings release and management briefing will show whether the company still stands behind the 870-aircraft goal and how it expects to complete the remaining handovers.