Sustainable Aviation Fuel prices have climbed sharply to around $3,000 per metric tonne in 2026, up from roughly $2,000 earlier in the year, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions linked to the Iran war have tightened global supply chains. The spike is creating fresh headwinds for airlines already struggling to scale up SAF use in line with their net-zero commitments.
The price increase has been driven by a combination of higher feedstock costs, logistical challenges in key production regions, and broader energy market volatility triggered by the conflict. SAF production remains heavily concentrated in a limited number of facilities worldwide, making the fuel particularly vulnerable to regional instability. As a result, what was already one of the most expensive inputs in commercial aviation has become even more costly, forcing airlines to reassess their 2030 SAF blending targets.
IATA has responded by renewing calls for governments and industry to accelerate the adoption of a global book-and-claim system. Under such a framework, airlines could purchase SAF certificates from producers even if the physical fuel is not used on their specific flights. This would allow faster scaling of production while giving carriers more flexibility in meeting emissions reduction goals. Without stronger policy support and mechanisms like book-and-claim, IATA has warned that the current price trajectory could significantly slow the industry’s progress toward its 2050 net-zero target.
For airlines, the higher SAF costs are arriving at a difficult time. Many carriers had already built ambitious SAF uptake targets into their sustainability strategies, only to see the economics deteriorate rapidly. While some have secured long-term offtake agreements at lower prices, newer or smaller airlines without such contracts are facing much steeper costs. The price surge also highlights the fragility of relying on a fuel source that is still in the early stages of commercial scaling.
The situation underscores a growing tension between geopolitical realities and climate ambitions in aviation. While the industry has made steady progress on SAF technology and production pathways, external shocks like the current Middle East conflict are exposing how dependent green aviation remains on stable global supply chains. Without faster policy intervention and investment in diversified production, the gap between SAF targets and actual delivery risks widening further in the coming years.