A joint analysis by the India Energy and Climate Centre (UC Berkeley Goldman School of Public Policy) and Energy Innovation demonstrates that India can produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) via a Power-and-Biomass-to-Liquids (PBtL) pathway at costs up to 40% below global benchmarks. The route combines surplus agricultural residue (primarily rice and wheat straw) with low-cost green hydrogen and renewable electricity.
Turning crop residue that is now burned as parali(rice straw) into sustainable aviation fuel would fundamentally alter the winter pollution equation across north India. Every year, the open burning of rice and wheat straw after harvest blankets Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and surrounding regions in dense fog and toxic smog contributing to tens of thousands of premature deaths and choking cities for weeks and diversion of hundreds of flights causing major flight disruptions. The Berkeley–Energy Innovation analysis shows that the same residue, when collected and processed via a Power-and-Biomass-to-Liquids pathway using low-cost green hydrogen, can yield SAF at costs up to 40 per cent below global benchmarks.
Instead of treating stubble as a seasonal liability that farmers are forced to set alight, it becomes a paid feedstock that generates rural income while supplying certified jet fuel to domestic and international airlines. Capturing even a modest share of the surplus residue near the Delhi, Pune and Mumbai corridors could simultaneously cut the volume of material burned, reduce the intensity of winter air crises, and create a multi-billion-dollar clean-fuel industry.
If India succeeds in organising residue collection, certification and offtake at scale, the conversion of 'parali' into SAF would rank among the largest practical opportunities to turn a chronic public-health and environmental problem into a strategic economic and climate asset.
Key Cost Findings - Baseline levelized cost of PBtL SAF: $1.41 per litre (at ~$3/kg green hydrogen). - Global SAF benchmark range: $1.6–2.4 per litre. - EU power-to-liquids e-SAF reference: ~$7.2 per litre (PBtL is approximately five times cheaper). - Cost structure: hydrogen $0.79/L, CAPEX $0.33/L, OPEX $0.15/L, biomass $0.14/L. - PBtL delivers the lowest production cost among five major SAF pathways modelled under Indian conditions. - Cost trajectory: ~$1.4/L in early 2030s declining toward $1.0/L by late 2040s; price parity with fossil jet fuel possible around 2036 under favourable conditions.
Scale and Feedstock - Collecting only 4% of India’s surplus crop residue by 2030 could supply ~25% of projected global SAF demand. - By 2040, ~13% of surplus residue would be required for the same share. - Estimated annual export revenue potential: $9 billion by 2030, rising to ~$30 billion by 2040. - Total surplus residue: 210–235 million tonnes per year — sufficient in principle to meet 100% of India’s projected 2050 domestic aviation fuel demand. - Lifecycle GHG reduction: >95% versus fossil jet fuel (<4.5 gCO₂e/MJ), with no significant land-use-change risk.
District-level mapping shows that agricultural residue availability and low green-hydrogen costs align most strongly in the zones surrounding Delhi, Pune, and Mumbai airports. India’s three largest aviation hubs therefore are directly on the optimal near-term production corridors, minimising feedstock logistics and finished-fuel delivery costs.
A separate Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials assessment (July 2026) confirms the opportunity is real but stresses that third-party certification, full feedstock traceability, and CORSIA-recognised chain-of-custody systems will determine whether global airlines purchase Indian SAF. Without credible certification, cost advantage alone will not unlock offtake contracts.
The path to commercialisation is not difficult. Realising operating PBtL capacity near Delhi, Pune, and Mumbai within this decade requires organised residue aggregation and farmer payment systems, bankable long-term offtake agreements, accelerated green-hydrogen deployment in the priority districts and early engagement with international certification bodies. If these institutional conditions are met, India can convert a structural cost and geographic advantage into a competitive, certified SAF export industry while reducing crop-burning pollution, generating rural income and hedging domestic aviation against crude-oil price volatility.